Extreme Annual Discharge Evaluation with Different Excendance and Return Period
Tomme: LX (LXIV) Fascicle: 2 | 2014
Pages: 61-72
Abstract text:
The hydrological practice involve to obtain the primary informations abouth the hydrological parameters which can be use in water infrastructure design. By a statistical processing of the data from hydrological found we can obtain the parameters for designing and exploitation of hydraulic structures and not the last for delivery the prognosys. The designing of the civil engineering structures demand the knowledge of the basically designing parameters (discharge, level, rainfall, volume, etc.) with exceeding calculus and checkup probabilities. The aim of this paper is to show that some basic concepts and methods used in designing flood-related hydraulic structures assuming a normal distribution and, in particular, the concepts of return period and risk are formulated by extending the geometric distribution to allow for changing exceeding probabilities over time with examples and applications. The applications demonstrate that the return period and risk estimates for nonstationary situations can be quite different than those corresponding to stationary conditions. Annual extreme discharge occur from one year to another, without condition the mutual, but to reach the homogeneity necessary like string value is required to be made up of values generated by the same hydrometeorological conditions (rainfall or snowmelt or both). Special attention should be given to the highest values due to difficulties in measurement and their calcululm. To establish the annual extreme flows can be used as Gumbel, Gauss-Laplace or Gama probability distributions. The normal and log-normal distributions give a solution regarding the appropriate assessment of the risk of a hydraulic structure during the designing project.
Key Words:
hydrological extreme parameters; statistical distribution; risk; design parameter.
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